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mstr stock: Down but not out?

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    Generated Title: MicroStrategy's Bitcoin Obsession: Genius Move or Slow-Motion Train Wreck?

    Alright, let's get one thing straight: Michael Saylor is either a visionary or completely off his rocker. There's no in-between. This whole MicroStrategy-as-a-Bitcoin-slush-fund thing has been a wild ride, but lately? It's starting to feel more like a slow-motion train wreck.

    The Saylor Gamble: High Risk, Maybe No Reward?

    Down 40% in six months? Ouch. That's not just a dip; that's a faceplant. And it's all tied to Bitcoin's price swings. I mean, yeah, BTC had its moment, hitting record highs, but it's also down 20% from those highs. So, what happens when Bitcoin sneezes? MicroStrategy catches pneumonia.

    Saylor's doubling down, though. Raising dividends on preferred shares to 10.5%? Desperate much? It's like he's trying to bribe investors to keep the faith while simultaneously diluting the hell out of their shares. And this preferred stock sale? Worries about shareholder dilution are valid. It's like giving everyone a smaller piece of a rapidly shrinking pie.

    And let's be real, this isn't some scrappy startup bootstrapping its way to success. We're talking about a company that used to be a software company. Now, it's basically a Bitcoin holding company with a software side hustle. Is that really sustainable? I'm not convinced.

    Then again, maybe I'm just being a grumpy old cynic. Maybe Saylor is playing 4D chess while the rest of us are stuck in checkers. But color me skeptical.

    Desperate Measures & Fuzzy Math

    Strategy is exploring international markets and considering ETFs backed by its preferred shares. They also plan to launch their first euro-denominated preferred share, expecting $715 million in proceeds. What? What does any of this even MEAN? It feels like they are throwing anything at the wall to see if it sticks.

    And the analysts? Don't even get me started. Twelve of them recommend "Strong Buy"? Seriously? Are they all drinking the same Kool-Aid? The average price target is $523, a 120% upside? Give me a break.

    mstr stock: Down but not out?

    Oh, and another thing that grinds my gears: the constant moving of Bitcoin between wallets. They moved more than 47,000 BTC. Saylor tweets "HODL" with a picture of a burning ship? What in the actual hell? Is he trying to be ironic? Sarcastic? Or just plain tone-deaf?

    Arkham Intelligence says their holdings declined from more than 484,000 BTC to 437,431 BTC over the last 24 hours. It's unclear whether the shift in holdings came from transfers or sales. Right. "Transfers." Sure. And I'm the Queen of England.

    I mean, I get it: Bitcoin prices rose more than 7x between January 2023 and October 2025. During this period, MSTR stock increased by 30 times. But can that really continue?

    The $5 Million Bitcoin Fantasy

    Strategy hopes Bitcoin's price will eventually reach $5 million. Five. Million. Dollars. They are planning to raise $42 billion through 2027 with that hope.

    Even if Bitcoin grows at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26.2% through 2030 – which is a HUGE "if" – it would still take over 15 years to hit that magical $5 million mark. Meanwhile, Strategy’s debt is skyrocketing. Total liabilities went up 193% in one year.

    Strategy posted strong Q3 earnings but continued to see its stock decline, leaving shareholders in an awkward position as they try to determine whether the company can be evaluated independently of Bitcoin. Can it? No, offcourse not.

    And now, when Strategy issues forward guidance, it isn’t doing so in the same manner as most publicly traded companies. Instead of projecting prospective revenue, cash flow, and net income based on various lines of business, its guidance is heavily correlated with Bitcoin, relying on the performance of the cryptocurrency. We are not even talking about a tech company anymore.

    Saylor's Lost His Damn Mind

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